Title : Climate change impact on genetic connectivity and functional traits of important plant species of Iran by suing datamining, computational biology and machine learning methods
Abstract:
Climate change poses a major threat to plant biodiversity by altering genetic connectivity and functional trait variation, particularly in species with limited dispersal capacity. In Iran, characterized by strong climatic gradients and fragmented landscapes, these changes may severely constrain the adaptive potential of ecologically, medicinally, and economically important plant species. Climate change threatens not only the survival of individual species but also the genetic diversity that is essential for their resilience, as restricted gene flow can exacerbate the risks of genetic drift and loss of adaptive traits. Therefore, understanding the interaction between climate change, genetic structure, and functional traits is critical for effective conservation and management. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on genetic connectivity and functional traits of key Iranian plant species using an integrative data-driven and computational framework. Structural equation modelling based on Partial Least Squares (PLS-SEM) is applied to quantify direct and indirect effects of climatic and landscape variables. Landscape genetics analyses, including Redundancy Analysis (RDA), canonical correspondence analysis (CCA), spatial PCA (sPCA), Mantel tests, and discriminant analysis of principal components (DAPC), are used to assess environment–genetic relationships. Functional trait patterns are explored using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Factor Analysis of Mixed Data (FAMD). Random Forest models are employed to identify major climatic drivers, with SHAP value analysis providing model interpretability. In addition, Random Regression Mixed Models (RRMM) are used to analyze reaction norms and genotype–environment interactions across climatic gradients. Results provide insights into plant adaptive responses to climate change and support climate-informed conservation strategies for important medicinal and crop-related plant species in Iran, including Avicennia, Pteris, and Persian oak.
