Title : GIS and ML-driven insights into forest vulnerability and climate hotspots in Assam state, India
Abstract:
Assam, a biodiversity-rich state in Northeast India, faces substantial environmental challenges exacerbated by climate change, anthropogenic pressures, and land-use changes. This study evaluates the vulnerability of Assam's forest ecosystems and biodiversity using an indicator-based approach that integrates eight critical parameters: Biological Richness Index (BRI), Disturbance Index (DI), Forest Canopy Density (FCD), Fire Point Intensity (FPI), Biomass Extraction Intensity (BEI), Slope, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI). These indicators were assigned weights through the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and synthesized to develop a comprehensive Forest and Biodiversity Vulnerability Index (FBVI). The analysis was conducted over forested grids with at least 5% forest cover, derived from ISFR 2021 data, and the spatial extent of vulnerability was mapped. The assessment revealed that out of 140 forested grids, 19 were categorized as very highly vulnerable and 68 as highly vulnerable. Climate change hotspot analysis further identified 46 grids with very high and high exposure to climate change, overlapping with the highly vulnerable zones for forests and biodiversity. This correlation underscores the compounded risks that the state's ecosystems face. Key contributing factors include deforestation, habitat fragmentation, and climate extremes such as floods, droughts, and forest fires. Trend analysis over a 22-year period highlights a 1.56% reduction in total forest cover and a 4.06% decrease in very dense forest areas. The land use and land cover (LULC) analysis revealed significant changes, including a 9.3% (7313 sq. km) increase in cropland and a 1% (742 sq. km) rise in settlement areas. These changes have been driven largely by population growth, agricultural expansion, and unsustainable forest resource extraction. The Fire Point Intensity (FPI) analysis identified six districts as very highly prone to fire incidents and nine districts as highly prone, emphasizing the increasing risk of forest fires. Similarly, SPI trends identified seven districts within the very high drought-prone zone, further stressing the vulnerability of Assam’s Forest ecosystems to climatic variability. The socio-economic survey conducted as part of this assessment revealed high levels of biomass extraction intensity (BEI) in forest fringe villages, with communities heavily dependent on forest products for subsistence and livelihood. This dependency places additional pressure on forest ecosystems, contributing to their degradation and increasing their vulnerability. The study also identified significant flood-prone areas through the Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI), emphasizing the interplay between hydrological factors and forest ecosystem health. The findings of this study highlight the urgent need for climate-resilient forest management practices and targeted conservation strategies. Adaptive measures such as participatory forest management, REDD+ initiatives, capacity building, and advanced monitoring and reporting systems are essential to mitigate vulnerabilities. Institutional strengthening and community engagement are critical to ensuring sustainable livelihoods for forest-dependent communities while conserving biodiversity. This comprehensive vulnerability assessment serves as a critical framework for policymakers, conservationists, and stakeholders. By identifying vulnerability hotspots and trends, the study provides actionable insights for prioritizing conservation efforts, designing climate adaptation strategies, and achieving sustainable forest management in Assam. The integration of spatial analysis with socio-economic data offers a holistic approach to addressing the escalating threats to Assam’s forests and biodiversity.
