Title : Geospatial modeling of forest cover dynamics and impact on climate variability in awi zone, Ethiopia
Abstract:
Globally, forest habitats are threatened by human-induced deforestation and degradation. This study was aimed to assessing changes in land-use patterns in Awi Zone, Ethiopia, during the last 34 years and its relationship with land surface temperature (LST) and rainfall using digital change detection approaches. Multi-temporal Landsat imagery (1985, 2000, 2009, and 2019), MODIS, and CHIRPS were used in combination with Google Earth and field data for this study. Support vector machine classification technique was used to produce LULC maps. Mann–Kendall test for LST (2000?2019) and rainfall (1981?2019) was used to compute non-parametric trend analysis. Results revealed that 47,255.5 ha of forest and 24,674.9 ha of other-land cover types had increased from 1985 to 2019. In contrast, agriculture and bare land had decreased by 16,819.9 ha and 55, 110.5 ha, respectively. In Dega agro-climatic zone, mean and minimum LST trend analysis has revealed a significant decrease. Sen's slope shows mean, minimum, and maximum LST decreasing trend at 0.13 °C/yr., 0.12 °C/yr. and 0.10 °C/yr., respectively. In Woyna Dega and Kolla, LST trend analysis showed decreasing and increasing trends from 2000 to 2019.Coefficient of determination (r2) of forest cover and mean LST for Dega, Woyna Dega, and Kolla zones revealed 0.98, 0.81, and 0.20, respectively. Kolla is highly influenced by anthropogenic factors and rapid urbanization that caused depletion of forest cover and conversion of farmlands into human settlements. In future, community-based land-use and land-cover planning and sustainable forest management system are recommended to protect, conserve and rehabilitate the remaining natural environment in the study area.
